Spring Training Stats

With the Jays first Grapefruit League game of 2010 coming up tomorrow I thought I would have a look at last years stats from the spring. We always hear that the stats do not matter and they should be taken with a large grain of salt and that is the case more often than not. Dave Cameron, of Fangraphs, recently wrote an article all about last years top performers and their success, or lack thereof, in the regular season. As fans, we can watch boxscores, but must try our hardest to remember the relative importance of the games being played.

As you can see below, the Jays most valuable player could have been Jason Lane who went on to spend the entire season in AAA Las Vegas where he struggled to the tune of a .253/.347/.462 line with 13 homers and 47 RBI's.

David Purcey had a great spring and was seen as the Jays number two starter when the club broke camp, but his season quickly went down hill. With every Purcey, though, there is a Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Aaron Hill, or Adam Lind who carries it over to the season.

I, like many fans, will probably have trouble tempering by excitement if a couple young pitchers like Kyle Drabek or Zach Stewart or hitters like Travis Snider or Brett Wallace have great springs, but we all know that it really may not mean a whole lot.

A Few Trade Chips

There is no doubt that if (and 'when' in many peoples opinions) that Jays are without a shot at the playoffs that Alex Anthopoulos would be looking to move certain players in the right deal. Contenders are looking to boost their chances to go deeper into the playoffs while taking advantage of their trading partner. The Jays would surely look at any deal that would give them a piece moving forward.

One thing that many people always wanted from former G.M. J.P. Ricciardi was an admission that the team was not in contention. Often, it seemed, he was in denial and refused to move pieces before the trade deadline. For example, when A.J. Burnett was pitching well in what would be his final season for the club, Ricciardi was unable to make a move that may have helped the club. He may not have had a viable offer (and he could not have foreseen the Yankees signing two higher rated free agents), but there was little doubt that he was going to opt-out of his deal and leave for another long-term contract. If there was a deal that could have brought back prospects worth more than the picks that they would have received, then a deal should have been made. That all sounds familiar to the Roy Halladay situation that was just endured.

This year, the Jays will be a team which will be called early and often. As a rookie general manager, Anthopoulos will probably receive some low-ball offers, but he is smart enough to know the value of his assets.

A few Jays that contending teams could be looking at:

1B Lyle Overbay

With an expiring contract at $7 million and hot shot prospect Brett Wallace hot on his heels, Overbay will be moved if there is any deal that would bring back proper compensation. Not only would the acquiring club receive a good defensive first baseman (and righty masher), but they would pick up draft pick compensation at seasons end. If the player package heading the Jays way cannot exceed the compensatory picks then the deal may as well not be completed. However, if Wallace is able to surprise in spring and get off to a good start in Las Vegas, he may force the Jays hand in making a deal.

RP Scott Downs & Jason Frasor

Both releivers would, assumably, slide right into a contending teams 7th or 8th inning role perfectly. Both pitchers may be forced into a closing role here in Toronto, but the team getting them would probably have someone already in place as the closer. Teams would probably be hesitant in giving up any top prospects, but many are prone to give up more than normal when they are in a playoff push. Another guy who may fall into this group, but has the ability to start too is Brian Tallet.

SS Alex Gonzalez

As I have said before, many clubs are in search of stop-gap shortstops who are reliable with the glove and won't kill you with their bats. Gonzalez was a victim of the trade deadline last year when he was shipped from the Reds to the Red Sox. He may be in a similar situation this year if he has a strong enough year to gather some interest.

Something that always bothers me is when contending teams are looking to acquire players, but are reluctant to give up unproven prospects for legitimate major-league players. All teams should keep an eye towards the future, but if you are building up your minor-league system for the major-league playoffs, then why wouldn't you be willing to ship them out for someone who is going to help you in the present time. A perfect example from this offseason is the Philadelphia Phillies and their refusal to keep Cliff Lee. To pair him up with Halladay and Cole Hamels would have created a formidable playoff rotation. They were willing to give up a proven pitcher for prospects who are highly-regarded, but not sure things.

Key Position Players

With the expected season the Jays are about to go through it is easy to say that a good portion of the lineup would need to have career years for the club to compete. In years past, when the club thought it was in position to contend for a playoff spot, the Jays suffered from certain players either not performing to their expectations or not being able to play at their career norms due to injuries.

Last year, for example, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill played at levels that no one could have foreseen. On the other hand, players like Alex Rios and Vernon Wells were not able to continue their play of years past.

This year the Jays and their fans will look for breakout seasons from players like Brandon Morrow and Travis Snider while searching for continued dominance from Hill and Lind. With the relative inexperience that is on the roster, the chances of breakout seasons from some of the younger guys are unlikely to happen.

At this point in the re-building of the organization, general manager Alex Anthopoulos is looking to see who can handle the majors and who needs more development time.

As I mentioned, though, since it is unlikely for every player to have career years which would push the Jays into contention, there will be key players which could really progress the building of a competitor in the tough AL East. 

Adam Lind

At 26-years-old, Lind will look to build on his sensational 2009 season where he found himself as a LF/DH for 151 games. After posting a .305/.370/.562 with 35 homers and 114 RBI, Lind will be put in a similar position in the lineup where he is going to be expected to be amongst the top sluggers in the American League. With the track record of being a top-notch hitter at every level of baseball, there is no reason to expect he cannot continue what he started last season.

Aaron Hill

While missing nearly two-thirds of 2008 with a severe concussion, Hill rebounded with a sublime 2009 season where he hit .286/.330/.499 (36 HR and 108 RBI) and won the Silver Slugger award for his position. It has been said that he may not be able to smash home runs at the same pace, but if he is able to get on-base a bit betterwhile still seeking his pitch to hit he will continue to be amongst the best young second basemen in the majors. For an interesting read on Hill's spray chart for homers last year, check out this article from Fangraphs. 

Vernon Wells

Wells will hope to bounce back after a 2009 season where he hit .260/.311/.400 with 15 homers and 66 RBI. After the season he had surgery on his wrist which will hopefully give him some of his power back. Cito has mentioned he wants to place Wells in the cleanup spot behind Hill and Lind so he will be given every opportunity to show he can be the hitter he was in 2003 or 2006. I am sure the Jays would settle for something around his career averages of .280/.329/.470. If Wells were able to find his previous form he, at the age of just 31, could give some justification to his massive pricetag.

Travis Snider

At just 22-years-old, Snider will look to fulfill on the promise which everyone has heralded him with since being drafted. It looked like last year was going to be that season, but after slugging .484 in April (and smashing two mammoth homers while in Minnesota) last year it was all downhill. Snider has admitted to going through some rough times last season (recounted here) and is looking forward to having a strong spring. He has not been guaranteed an outfield spot on the major-league club, but it would benefit the club for him to make a statement at the highest level. Snider is the type of player who contending teams place in the middle of their orders and expect top-10 MVP type seasons. His vast potential has allowed him to cruise through the minors and it should allow him to flourish in time.

These are some position players that I feel could help the club grow into the contender they hope to become. Obviously every player would benefit the club with a good season, but they are obviously the core of the current major league club (in terms of position players). If players like Edwin Encarnacion and Lyle Overbay could have solid seasona they may be in line for an extension or a quality trade, respectively. The club will look to boost the minor league system to fill positions of need while promoting those who are currently in the system. Some of the key position players who may see playing time in the majors as soon as 2010 are: Brett Wallace (1B/3B) and J.P. Arencibia (C).

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Lind Leads Jays Fantasy Players

ESPN has come out with their 2010 player projections and there are a few Jays who I am interested in for the upcoming season. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I, when drafting, will more than likely avoid any of the three potential closers (Downs, Gregg, and Frasor) and it looks like they are saying they are feeling the same way. There are a few intriguing players who could help someone's roster either from the draft or later on in the season. Roy Halladay has long been the Jays top fantasy player amongst Jays, but his loss leaves others to step up.

As expected Adam Lind and Aaron Hill lead the bunch of Blue Jays (click to expand):

Now I will give you some players who I feel could be significant fantasy contributors for Toronto (no particular order):

Obviously these are just estimates of the stats these players will put up, but they are always fun to look at. Some players will fail to meet expectations, while others will rise above any prognostications. I am sure no one expected Adam Lind or Aaron Hill to do what they did last year.