Interesting Spring Training Questions

There are a number of questions which remain unanswered at the Jays spring camp:

• 
  
  Will Jason Frasor (or maybe Scott Downs?) be moved to another club?

Tough to even hazard a guess, but if the right offer comes along (maybe the Twins or Cubs) then a move will be made. With his new hybrid changeup, it may be smart to allow Frasor to close ball game and have a career year to further boost his value. Scott Downs, if he is available, could be harder to move because he has been rather injury-prone, but he is currently not at his peak value.

• 
  
  Who is going to close ball games?

It seems like Kevin Gregg still holds the upper hand despite his struggles in his short time in spring training. It would be nice to see Jason Frasor be given the opportunity because he was awesome last year and seems to have turned the corner as a relief pitcher.

• 
  
  Who is the fifth starter to begin the year?

I believe it will be Brian Tallet because Cito has hinted as much and knows what he is getting from him when he sends him out there. Gaston seems to love players who played for the team before (much like Shawn Camp) and he will likely be given the spot to start the year while the team awaits the arrival of another guy to take a spot in the rotation. Brett Cecil seems to be out of favour with the organization recently and the team does not want to rush prospects or injured players. It would be nice to see someone like Dana Eveland who is younger and has more potential to help the team long-term.  

• Who is your top bench player (Mike McCoy, Jeremy Reed, or Joey Gathwright)?

I would think the Jays will use Mike McCoy as an extreme utility player and pinch runner. His ability to play both the infield and outfield while supplying decent on-base skills and plus speed he is a better option than the other players. Reed and Gathwright have proven what they are as major-league players: mediocre.

• Is Travis Snider going to make the team to begin the season?

No, he won't. It sucks to say it because he is definitely fun to watch, but he will probably spend a chunk of time in the Pacific Coast League to begin the year. He does struggle against major-league lefties and is too young to platoon in the MLB. It is unknown how much the minors can help him at this point because he raked there last year, but his teammate Adam Lind went through a lot of the same struggles before and he has fluorished with an advanced hitting aproach. Randy Ruiz deserves a chance to prove himself as a major league hitter and Jose Bautista is in the managers good books. Bautista will more than likely lead-off and start in right field.

EDIT: I think Cito has seen the light (or possibly been told my someone above him) that Snider is the future and will start him in the outfield come opening day. His recent comments on his recent play and importance to the teams future success bode well for Snider and his chances of making the team. This would leave out Reed and Gathwright.

• 
  
  Who will make up the rest of the bullpen?

Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Camp, and Zech Zinicola are the group that I think they will start out with. This is obviously just a guess, but I think Casey Janssen and Josh Roenicke will be close. The club will want to watch Zinicola much like they did with Randy Wells years back. I believe Merkin Valdez needs to make the Jays out of sprimg to remain with the club so it really is a loaded bullpen picture.

• 
  
  Can Edwin Encarnacion fully recover from his wrist problems to take on a full load at third?

All signs are pointing towards EE getting into spring games soon which would put him on line to start at third on opening day. Everyone always says that hitters could be ready for the season with a two week spring training so maybe the club is being extra cautious. Better safe than sorry and the less wear and tear on that recovering wrist the better. He is a guy who has good power and on-base skills which could really help out a club. I am really high on him and I don't understand why he got so much hate after he struggled to start out with Toronto last season. His defence is not good, but we were spoiled with Scott Rolen and EE really just struggles with an inconsistent throwing arm.

• 
  
  Who is the backup catcher to begin the year?

I think it is safe to assume that Jose Molina is going to take that spot in behind John Buck. He is getting a lot of time behind the plate while he attempts to learn all of the new pitchers he will have to catch. If Raul Chavez had any chance he would be catching 'A' games and not the 'B' games he has been working in.

• 
  
  Will Brian Dopirak or Randy Ruiz get the backup first baseman/DH spot?

Ruiz is not making it easy for Dopirak to make his major-league debut, but Dopirak is hitting well also. Ruiz is the darling of all the people surrounding the team and it is deserved. This is a guy who has hit at every spot and done whatever the Jays have asked of him. With a new body and the same bat Ruiz is the favourite to make the team.

• 
  
  Is Shaun Marcum your opening day starter?

Yes, as pointed out by reporters, he is right on line to start the first game of the year in Texas and is the more experienced than Ricky Romero which is a prerequisite far Gaston. Marcum is only helping his case by blanking the Yankees and Rays in his only spring training starts.

My Fantasy Squad

I had my fantasy draft last night at ESPN and I wound up with the 10th and 11th picks. With those picks I chose Miguel Cabrera and David Wright. The rest of the way I tried to get stud starting pitchers, but I forgot about the oufield spot somewhere along the way. If you are interested in my team you can see the pictures below of my roster. It is a standard 10 team, head-to-head, 25-man roster, league that counts batting average, home runs, RBI's, runs scored, and stolen bases for hitters and ERA, WHIP, saves, strikeouts, and wins for pitchers.

Tell me your opinion of my team or talk about yours in the comments section below. Remember you can follow my twitter @anotherjaysblog.

Key Position Players

With the expected season the Jays are about to go through it is easy to say that a good portion of the lineup would need to have career years for the club to compete. In years past, when the club thought it was in position to contend for a playoff spot, the Jays suffered from certain players either not performing to their expectations or not being able to play at their career norms due to injuries.

Last year, for example, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill played at levels that no one could have foreseen. On the other hand, players like Alex Rios and Vernon Wells were not able to continue their play of years past.

This year the Jays and their fans will look for breakout seasons from players like Brandon Morrow and Travis Snider while searching for continued dominance from Hill and Lind. With the relative inexperience that is on the roster, the chances of breakout seasons from some of the younger guys are unlikely to happen.

At this point in the re-building of the organization, general manager Alex Anthopoulos is looking to see who can handle the majors and who needs more development time.

As I mentioned, though, since it is unlikely for every player to have career years which would push the Jays into contention, there will be key players which could really progress the building of a competitor in the tough AL East. 

Adam Lind

At 26-years-old, Lind will look to build on his sensational 2009 season where he found himself as a LF/DH for 151 games. After posting a .305/.370/.562 with 35 homers and 114 RBI, Lind will be put in a similar position in the lineup where he is going to be expected to be amongst the top sluggers in the American League. With the track record of being a top-notch hitter at every level of baseball, there is no reason to expect he cannot continue what he started last season.

Aaron Hill

While missing nearly two-thirds of 2008 with a severe concussion, Hill rebounded with a sublime 2009 season where he hit .286/.330/.499 (36 HR and 108 RBI) and won the Silver Slugger award for his position. It has been said that he may not be able to smash home runs at the same pace, but if he is able to get on-base a bit betterwhile still seeking his pitch to hit he will continue to be amongst the best young second basemen in the majors. For an interesting read on Hill's spray chart for homers last year, check out this article from Fangraphs. 

Vernon Wells

Wells will hope to bounce back after a 2009 season where he hit .260/.311/.400 with 15 homers and 66 RBI. After the season he had surgery on his wrist which will hopefully give him some of his power back. Cito has mentioned he wants to place Wells in the cleanup spot behind Hill and Lind so he will be given every opportunity to show he can be the hitter he was in 2003 or 2006. I am sure the Jays would settle for something around his career averages of .280/.329/.470. If Wells were able to find his previous form he, at the age of just 31, could give some justification to his massive pricetag.

Travis Snider

At just 22-years-old, Snider will look to fulfill on the promise which everyone has heralded him with since being drafted. It looked like last year was going to be that season, but after slugging .484 in April (and smashing two mammoth homers while in Minnesota) last year it was all downhill. Snider has admitted to going through some rough times last season (recounted here) and is looking forward to having a strong spring. He has not been guaranteed an outfield spot on the major-league club, but it would benefit the club for him to make a statement at the highest level. Snider is the type of player who contending teams place in the middle of their orders and expect top-10 MVP type seasons. His vast potential has allowed him to cruise through the minors and it should allow him to flourish in time.

These are some position players that I feel could help the club grow into the contender they hope to become. Obviously every player would benefit the club with a good season, but they are obviously the core of the current major league club (in terms of position players). If players like Edwin Encarnacion and Lyle Overbay could have solid seasona they may be in line for an extension or a quality trade, respectively. The club will look to boost the minor league system to fill positions of need while promoting those who are currently in the system. Some of the key position players who may see playing time in the majors as soon as 2010 are: Brett Wallace (1B/3B) and J.P. Arencibia (C).

Twitter

You can now follow me on Twitter @anotherjaysblog

Lind Leads Jays Fantasy Players

ESPN has come out with their 2010 player projections and there are a few Jays who I am interested in for the upcoming season. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I, when drafting, will more than likely avoid any of the three potential closers (Downs, Gregg, and Frasor) and it looks like they are saying they are feeling the same way. There are a few intriguing players who could help someone's roster either from the draft or later on in the season. Roy Halladay has long been the Jays top fantasy player amongst Jays, but his loss leaves others to step up.

As expected Adam Lind and Aaron Hill lead the bunch of Blue Jays (click to expand):

Now I will give you some players who I feel could be significant fantasy contributors for Toronto (no particular order):

Obviously these are just estimates of the stats these players will put up, but they are always fun to look at. Some players will fail to meet expectations, while others will rise above any prognostications. I am sure no one expected Adam Lind or Aaron Hill to do what they did last year.  

Closing Conundrum

While reading MLB Trade Rumours I found a link to Roto Authority that talks about the 2010 Blue Jays closing situation. I, like many others, play fantasy baseball and while I am drafting relief pitchers in search of saves I will certainly try by best to avoid any of the Blue Jays closing options. There is not likely to be one featured closer like we have seen is some previous seasons (Accardo and Ryan) and the Jays are not projected to have a lot of save situations. There will likely not be a lot of late-inning lead situations and comebacks are not likely with the Jays offence.

The Jays, in general, do not project to have many fantasy studs with the exception of Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Also, most fantasy "experts" are not expecting Hill to put up similar numbers in 2010. I have read that Edwin Encarnacion is a sleeper for the upcoming season mainly because of the lack of third base depth around the majors and his power and run-producing potential.

To get back to the closing situation though, the Jays have three pitchers who could close adequately, but not to the levels of a Joe Nathan or Jon Papelbon. Those pitchers are Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and newly signed Kevin Gregg. Gregg has the most experience and probably has the upper-hand because of Cito Gaston's tendency to go with the proven commodity.

As mentioned in the article, both Downs and Frasor are entering their walk years and may be moved at the deadline or let walk at the end of the year for draft pick compensation. This may push them to have better seasons as we have seen so often. Downs and Frasor both had better peripheral pitching statistics compared to Gregg and they accomplished those numbers in the much tougher AL East.

Gregg has been heard saying that he is finally healthy from bumps and bruises that have hampered him in the past and looks forward to competing in Spring Training for the job. I feel as though the job will be his, rightly or wrongly, regardless of his spring numbers.

So I could see Gregg being a fantasy pick-up either somewhere in the late rounds or off the waiver-wire for those who are in need of saves and strikeouts. According to Marcel, which predicts stats for MLB players, Gregg is expected to post numbers like this: