Interesting Spring Training Questions

There are a number of questions which remain unanswered at the Jays spring camp:

• 
  
  Will Jason Frasor (or maybe Scott Downs?) be moved to another club?

Tough to even hazard a guess, but if the right offer comes along (maybe the Twins or Cubs) then a move will be made. With his new hybrid changeup, it may be smart to allow Frasor to close ball game and have a career year to further boost his value. Scott Downs, if he is available, could be harder to move because he has been rather injury-prone, but he is currently not at his peak value.

• 
  
  Who is going to close ball games?

It seems like Kevin Gregg still holds the upper hand despite his struggles in his short time in spring training. It would be nice to see Jason Frasor be given the opportunity because he was awesome last year and seems to have turned the corner as a relief pitcher.

• 
  
  Who is the fifth starter to begin the year?

I believe it will be Brian Tallet because Cito has hinted as much and knows what he is getting from him when he sends him out there. Gaston seems to love players who played for the team before (much like Shawn Camp) and he will likely be given the spot to start the year while the team awaits the arrival of another guy to take a spot in the rotation. Brett Cecil seems to be out of favour with the organization recently and the team does not want to rush prospects or injured players. It would be nice to see someone like Dana Eveland who is younger and has more potential to help the team long-term.  

• Who is your top bench player (Mike McCoy, Jeremy Reed, or Joey Gathwright)?

I would think the Jays will use Mike McCoy as an extreme utility player and pinch runner. His ability to play both the infield and outfield while supplying decent on-base skills and plus speed he is a better option than the other players. Reed and Gathwright have proven what they are as major-league players: mediocre.

• Is Travis Snider going to make the team to begin the season?

No, he won't. It sucks to say it because he is definitely fun to watch, but he will probably spend a chunk of time in the Pacific Coast League to begin the year. He does struggle against major-league lefties and is too young to platoon in the MLB. It is unknown how much the minors can help him at this point because he raked there last year, but his teammate Adam Lind went through a lot of the same struggles before and he has fluorished with an advanced hitting aproach. Randy Ruiz deserves a chance to prove himself as a major league hitter and Jose Bautista is in the managers good books. Bautista will more than likely lead-off and start in right field.

EDIT: I think Cito has seen the light (or possibly been told my someone above him) that Snider is the future and will start him in the outfield come opening day. His recent comments on his recent play and importance to the teams future success bode well for Snider and his chances of making the team. This would leave out Reed and Gathwright.

• 
  
  Who will make up the rest of the bullpen?

Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Camp, and Zech Zinicola are the group that I think they will start out with. This is obviously just a guess, but I think Casey Janssen and Josh Roenicke will be close. The club will want to watch Zinicola much like they did with Randy Wells years back. I believe Merkin Valdez needs to make the Jays out of sprimg to remain with the club so it really is a loaded bullpen picture.

• 
  
  Can Edwin Encarnacion fully recover from his wrist problems to take on a full load at third?

All signs are pointing towards EE getting into spring games soon which would put him on line to start at third on opening day. Everyone always says that hitters could be ready for the season with a two week spring training so maybe the club is being extra cautious. Better safe than sorry and the less wear and tear on that recovering wrist the better. He is a guy who has good power and on-base skills which could really help out a club. I am really high on him and I don't understand why he got so much hate after he struggled to start out with Toronto last season. His defence is not good, but we were spoiled with Scott Rolen and EE really just struggles with an inconsistent throwing arm.

• 
  
  Who is the backup catcher to begin the year?

I think it is safe to assume that Jose Molina is going to take that spot in behind John Buck. He is getting a lot of time behind the plate while he attempts to learn all of the new pitchers he will have to catch. If Raul Chavez had any chance he would be catching 'A' games and not the 'B' games he has been working in.

• 
  
  Will Brian Dopirak or Randy Ruiz get the backup first baseman/DH spot?

Ruiz is not making it easy for Dopirak to make his major-league debut, but Dopirak is hitting well also. Ruiz is the darling of all the people surrounding the team and it is deserved. This is a guy who has hit at every spot and done whatever the Jays have asked of him. With a new body and the same bat Ruiz is the favourite to make the team.

• 
  
  Is Shaun Marcum your opening day starter?

Yes, as pointed out by reporters, he is right on line to start the first game of the year in Texas and is the more experienced than Ricky Romero which is a prerequisite far Gaston. Marcum is only helping his case by blanking the Yankees and Rays in his only spring training starts.

A Few Trade Chips

There is no doubt that if (and 'when' in many peoples opinions) that Jays are without a shot at the playoffs that Alex Anthopoulos would be looking to move certain players in the right deal. Contenders are looking to boost their chances to go deeper into the playoffs while taking advantage of their trading partner. The Jays would surely look at any deal that would give them a piece moving forward.

One thing that many people always wanted from former G.M. J.P. Ricciardi was an admission that the team was not in contention. Often, it seemed, he was in denial and refused to move pieces before the trade deadline. For example, when A.J. Burnett was pitching well in what would be his final season for the club, Ricciardi was unable to make a move that may have helped the club. He may not have had a viable offer (and he could not have foreseen the Yankees signing two higher rated free agents), but there was little doubt that he was going to opt-out of his deal and leave for another long-term contract. If there was a deal that could have brought back prospects worth more than the picks that they would have received, then a deal should have been made. That all sounds familiar to the Roy Halladay situation that was just endured.

This year, the Jays will be a team which will be called early and often. As a rookie general manager, Anthopoulos will probably receive some low-ball offers, but he is smart enough to know the value of his assets.

A few Jays that contending teams could be looking at:

1B Lyle Overbay

With an expiring contract at $7 million and hot shot prospect Brett Wallace hot on his heels, Overbay will be moved if there is any deal that would bring back proper compensation. Not only would the acquiring club receive a good defensive first baseman (and righty masher), but they would pick up draft pick compensation at seasons end. If the player package heading the Jays way cannot exceed the compensatory picks then the deal may as well not be completed. However, if Wallace is able to surprise in spring and get off to a good start in Las Vegas, he may force the Jays hand in making a deal.

RP Scott Downs & Jason Frasor

Both releivers would, assumably, slide right into a contending teams 7th or 8th inning role perfectly. Both pitchers may be forced into a closing role here in Toronto, but the team getting them would probably have someone already in place as the closer. Teams would probably be hesitant in giving up any top prospects, but many are prone to give up more than normal when they are in a playoff push. Another guy who may fall into this group, but has the ability to start too is Brian Tallet.

SS Alex Gonzalez

As I have said before, many clubs are in search of stop-gap shortstops who are reliable with the glove and won't kill you with their bats. Gonzalez was a victim of the trade deadline last year when he was shipped from the Reds to the Red Sox. He may be in a similar situation this year if he has a strong enough year to gather some interest.

Something that always bothers me is when contending teams are looking to acquire players, but are reluctant to give up unproven prospects for legitimate major-league players. All teams should keep an eye towards the future, but if you are building up your minor-league system for the major-league playoffs, then why wouldn't you be willing to ship them out for someone who is going to help you in the present time. A perfect example from this offseason is the Philadelphia Phillies and their refusal to keep Cliff Lee. To pair him up with Halladay and Cole Hamels would have created a formidable playoff rotation. They were willing to give up a proven pitcher for prospects who are highly-regarded, but not sure things.

Lind Leads Jays Fantasy Players

ESPN has come out with their 2010 player projections and there are a few Jays who I am interested in for the upcoming season. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I, when drafting, will more than likely avoid any of the three potential closers (Downs, Gregg, and Frasor) and it looks like they are saying they are feeling the same way. There are a few intriguing players who could help someone's roster either from the draft or later on in the season. Roy Halladay has long been the Jays top fantasy player amongst Jays, but his loss leaves others to step up.

As expected Adam Lind and Aaron Hill lead the bunch of Blue Jays (click to expand):

Now I will give you some players who I feel could be significant fantasy contributors for Toronto (no particular order):

Obviously these are just estimates of the stats these players will put up, but they are always fun to look at. Some players will fail to meet expectations, while others will rise above any prognostications. I am sure no one expected Adam Lind or Aaron Hill to do what they did last year.  

Closing Conundrum

While reading MLB Trade Rumours I found a link to Roto Authority that talks about the 2010 Blue Jays closing situation. I, like many others, play fantasy baseball and while I am drafting relief pitchers in search of saves I will certainly try by best to avoid any of the Blue Jays closing options. There is not likely to be one featured closer like we have seen is some previous seasons (Accardo and Ryan) and the Jays are not projected to have a lot of save situations. There will likely not be a lot of late-inning lead situations and comebacks are not likely with the Jays offence.

The Jays, in general, do not project to have many fantasy studs with the exception of Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Also, most fantasy "experts" are not expecting Hill to put up similar numbers in 2010. I have read that Edwin Encarnacion is a sleeper for the upcoming season mainly because of the lack of third base depth around the majors and his power and run-producing potential.

To get back to the closing situation though, the Jays have three pitchers who could close adequately, but not to the levels of a Joe Nathan or Jon Papelbon. Those pitchers are Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and newly signed Kevin Gregg. Gregg has the most experience and probably has the upper-hand because of Cito Gaston's tendency to go with the proven commodity.

As mentioned in the article, both Downs and Frasor are entering their walk years and may be moved at the deadline or let walk at the end of the year for draft pick compensation. This may push them to have better seasons as we have seen so often. Downs and Frasor both had better peripheral pitching statistics compared to Gregg and they accomplished those numbers in the much tougher AL East.

Gregg has been heard saying that he is finally healthy from bumps and bruises that have hampered him in the past and looks forward to competing in Spring Training for the job. I feel as though the job will be his, rightly or wrongly, regardless of his spring numbers.

So I could see Gregg being a fantasy pick-up either somewhere in the late rounds or off the waiver-wire for those who are in need of saves and strikeouts. According to Marcel, which predicts stats for MLB players, Gregg is expected to post numbers like this: