Is Milledge a Fit in Toronto?

Alex Anthopoulos is known to acquire players who were once highly touted prospects even if their stock has dropped significantly.

He added players like Brandon Morrow, Yunel Escobar, Fred Lewis, John Buck etc. when they were already being viewed as players who were unable to live up to the hype that was laid upon them. These players were able to provide different levels of success for the Jays major league club in the 2009 season.

In fantasy baseball you might call these guys the "post-hype" sleepers, due to their widely perceived lack of value. Often times these players either haven't been given proper time, been mishandled, or have simply underperformed the lofty expectations that were heaped upon them while they were coming through their respective systems.

Fans and front offices alike are often unable to look past what these players can do well and gradually grow tired of expectations unmet that were maybe unrealistic in the first place.

Morrow is obviously the poster boy of what I am talking about, and if A.A. is able to search out a few more success stories he will be able to get useful players with the potential to be a lot better.

With all of that said, I was looking for a few of these types myself and I came across Lastings Milledge, who was once drafted 12th overall by the New York Mets out of a Florida high school. Milledge is still just 25 years old and has already played in three different organizations. In 2006, he was rated the 9th best prospect in the minors by Baseball America.

While he hasn't lived up to his billing as a perennial all-star outfielder, he has been able to consistently get playing time in both right and left (as well as center while he was in Washington), albeit on some awful teams. Those teams were likely playing him in the hopes of rekindling some of the talent that evaluators saw in him previously.

I am not sure if this move would work out as well as some others, especially with the arrival of Rajai Davis, but Milledge has shown the ability to hit lefties which the Blue Jays sorely lacked last year. With tough left-handers in the AL East such as David Price and Jon Lester (and maybe Cliff Lee) the Jays could use someone like him if for nothing other than a fourth outfielder.

Last year he hit lefties very well (.320/.414/.512, all of his four homers, and a 19/16 strikeout to walk ratio) and has throughout his major league career. He is a flawed player in many areas (baserunning, defensive fundamentals), but if you can look at what he does well then you can see the player that he is and not the player many thought he could be.

Drabek Debut?

Kyle Drabek is one of the more hyped pitching prospects to come from the Toronto system for quite some time and he may be in line for his major league debut. Double-A New Hampshire was eliminated in game three of the best of five series on Friday night after Drabek, as well as teammate Zach Stewart, pitched great, but received no run support.

In 2010, Drabek threw 162.0 innings as well as six innings in game one of the playoffs for a total of 168 innings. This came after he threw 158 in 2009 while spanning two levels of the Philadelphia phillies system. According to Alex Anthopoulos' plan with Brandon Morrow of 20% increases per season, Drabek still has some pitches in that gifted right arm.

Stewart is just past an added 20 per cent from his previous season and is being adjusted to a full-time starter so I wouldn't expect a call-up for him, but Drabek has around 28 innings remaining to reach 190 innings. The remaining innings could fit nicely into the remaining schedule for the Jays.

With 21 games remaining for the Jays he could get three or more starts if he were to be called to the bigs. On regular rest he could start the first game in the upcoming series opener at Baltimore on Monday (and that game is actually on all Sportsnet channels!).

I am not really sure if the audition would have any impact on Drabek's chances of breaking camp with the team next year, but it would be a nice reward for a pitcher who has pitched great at Double-A.

Key Position Players

With the expected season the Jays are about to go through it is easy to say that a good portion of the lineup would need to have career years for the club to compete. In years past, when the club thought it was in position to contend for a playoff spot, the Jays suffered from certain players either not performing to their expectations or not being able to play at their career norms due to injuries.

Last year, for example, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill played at levels that no one could have foreseen. On the other hand, players like Alex Rios and Vernon Wells were not able to continue their play of years past.

This year the Jays and their fans will look for breakout seasons from players like Brandon Morrow and Travis Snider while searching for continued dominance from Hill and Lind. With the relative inexperience that is on the roster, the chances of breakout seasons from some of the younger guys are unlikely to happen.

At this point in the re-building of the organization, general manager Alex Anthopoulos is looking to see who can handle the majors and who needs more development time.

As I mentioned, though, since it is unlikely for every player to have career years which would push the Jays into contention, there will be key players which could really progress the building of a competitor in the tough AL East. 

Adam Lind

At 26-years-old, Lind will look to build on his sensational 2009 season where he found himself as a LF/DH for 151 games. After posting a .305/.370/.562 with 35 homers and 114 RBI, Lind will be put in a similar position in the lineup where he is going to be expected to be amongst the top sluggers in the American League. With the track record of being a top-notch hitter at every level of baseball, there is no reason to expect he cannot continue what he started last season.

Aaron Hill

While missing nearly two-thirds of 2008 with a severe concussion, Hill rebounded with a sublime 2009 season where he hit .286/.330/.499 (36 HR and 108 RBI) and won the Silver Slugger award for his position. It has been said that he may not be able to smash home runs at the same pace, but if he is able to get on-base a bit betterwhile still seeking his pitch to hit he will continue to be amongst the best young second basemen in the majors. For an interesting read on Hill's spray chart for homers last year, check out this article from Fangraphs. 

Vernon Wells

Wells will hope to bounce back after a 2009 season where he hit .260/.311/.400 with 15 homers and 66 RBI. After the season he had surgery on his wrist which will hopefully give him some of his power back. Cito has mentioned he wants to place Wells in the cleanup spot behind Hill and Lind so he will be given every opportunity to show he can be the hitter he was in 2003 or 2006. I am sure the Jays would settle for something around his career averages of .280/.329/.470. If Wells were able to find his previous form he, at the age of just 31, could give some justification to his massive pricetag.

Travis Snider

At just 22-years-old, Snider will look to fulfill on the promise which everyone has heralded him with since being drafted. It looked like last year was going to be that season, but after slugging .484 in April (and smashing two mammoth homers while in Minnesota) last year it was all downhill. Snider has admitted to going through some rough times last season (recounted here) and is looking forward to having a strong spring. He has not been guaranteed an outfield spot on the major-league club, but it would benefit the club for him to make a statement at the highest level. Snider is the type of player who contending teams place in the middle of their orders and expect top-10 MVP type seasons. His vast potential has allowed him to cruise through the minors and it should allow him to flourish in time.

These are some position players that I feel could help the club grow into the contender they hope to become. Obviously every player would benefit the club with a good season, but they are obviously the core of the current major league club (in terms of position players). If players like Edwin Encarnacion and Lyle Overbay could have solid seasona they may be in line for an extension or a quality trade, respectively. The club will look to boost the minor league system to fill positions of need while promoting those who are currently in the system. Some of the key position players who may see playing time in the majors as soon as 2010 are: Brett Wallace (1B/3B) and J.P. Arencibia (C).

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Lind Leads Jays Fantasy Players

ESPN has come out with their 2010 player projections and there are a few Jays who I am interested in for the upcoming season. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I, when drafting, will more than likely avoid any of the three potential closers (Downs, Gregg, and Frasor) and it looks like they are saying they are feeling the same way. There are a few intriguing players who could help someone's roster either from the draft or later on in the season. Roy Halladay has long been the Jays top fantasy player amongst Jays, but his loss leaves others to step up.

As expected Adam Lind and Aaron Hill lead the bunch of Blue Jays (click to expand):

Now I will give you some players who I feel could be significant fantasy contributors for Toronto (no particular order):

Obviously these are just estimates of the stats these players will put up, but they are always fun to look at. Some players will fail to meet expectations, while others will rise above any prognostications. I am sure no one expected Adam Lind or Aaron Hill to do what they did last year.  

Ace in Hand?

When the Blue Jays acquired righty Brandon Morrow in the offseason, I immediately approved of the trade. It was not long after the trade of Halladay and they needed someone to provide effective innings for what looked to be an extremely inexperienced rotation. While he played with the Mariners I was able to catch a few of his starts after Jays games and he certainly impressed me. I watched him almost no-hit the New York Yankees and watched him dismantle the A's last year in his final start of the year. Obviously those starts were/are not the norm, but it did show his vast potential.
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When the M's drafted him 5th overall in the 2006 amateur draft he was thought of as a future ace who could potentially help in the bullpen as soon as that upcoming season. He was an enigma of sorts and the organization admittedly gave him the "yo-yo" treatment by sending him between the rotation and bullpen, both in the majors and minors. They obviously regretted the decision because his potential was never met in the Northwest.

Furthermore, the fans saw the success of local hero Tim Lincecum who was taking the National League by storm just as he had done at the University of Washington. With every Lincecum quality start the Mariners fans would shake their collective heads at the fact that he could have been on their team. I think Jays fans know the feeling after the proposed Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum deal fell through.

Brandon League, along with highly touted outfield prospect Johermyn Chavez, were sent to Seattle in a deal that could work out well for both teams. The Mariners are hoping to contend this year with League moving into their bullpen and the Jays will likely move Morrow into the three-spot in their rotation (they can send him to the minors by using his remaining option, though).
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I, unlike some fans, enjoyed watching League even though he did struggle at times (especially in multi-inning situations), but it is a swap where all players involve may prosper with a change of scenery. Morrow, more so than League, had worn out his welcome and tried the patience of the new front-office of the Mariners and they sent him packing. With the dearth of bullpen arms available to the Blue Jays they could afford to move one piece for a big-armed starting pitcher.

Immediately we heard Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos compare Morrow to former Jay A.J. Burnett. Morrow is a guy who struggles with command, but can reach 98 on the radar gun with relative ease. It is that type of "stuff" that fans love to watch and opposing batters hate to face. On any given night he can strike out twelve or walk six. He can tantalize or frustrate fans or opponents alike and that is what the Jays will attempt to harness.

The Jays, who have a history of turning mediocre pitchers in to serviceable ones, will get the opportunity to turn a talented (albeit wild) pitcher into a future front-end starter.

Something that I will enjoy this season is going to be turning on the television every game and having the possibility to watch something special. Whether it be Morrow, Romero, Marcum, Cecil, or Rzepczynski. In addition to those guys, there are pitchers such as Drabek and McGowan who are just as young, talented, and fun to watch. In a year where there are no expectations, these are the guys I want to see pitch. With all due respect to guys such a Brian Tallet the Jays know what they have in him.

Here are some of Morrow's statistics from years past along with Bill James' projected 2010 statistics:

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Romero Ready for 2010

Really good article by Morgan Campbell in the Toronto Star today that explains how Toronto starting pitcher Ricky Romero is working to put himself on top of the jays rotation for good. Talk around the team indicates that it is a two horse race between him and teammate Shaun Marcum who is coming back from Tommy John surgery. I believe newcomer Brandon Morrow, if he has success in Spring Training, could see himself vault into the conversation.

Last year Romero came shooting out of the gate with a hot start before hitting the disabled list with a freak oblique injury that he suffered while sneezing. His season long stats were 29 GS, 178 IP, 192 H, 18 HR, 141 K, 79 BB, 13 W, 9 L which are not spectacular, but are surprising considering he wasn't projected to even break camp with the team. After defeating another highly-touted pitcher, Rick Porcello, in his MLB debut he posted a solid April month (3 GS, 21 IP, 19 H, 1 HR, 13 K, 4 BB, 2 W, 0 L). In one of those starts, Romero was dazzling at home against the Athletics where Jack Cust compared his pitch repertoire and body build to that of Cy Young winner Johan Santana.

The start was definitely too much to keep up, but the promise that lead the Jays to draft him with the 6th pick in the 2005 amateur draft was becoming evident.

As you can see in the graphic below, Romero's numbers fell off drastically after the All-Star break:


According to the article, Romero does not attribute the drop-off to fatigue, but rather to a sudden loss of the strike zone. It's true that his control suffered as he walked batters at a clip that put him near the worst in the American League with former-Jay A.J. Burnett.

With the loss of Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays need someone to step up and take over the role of ace of the staff and it seems as though Romero is working hard to put himself in that position.