Jays Sign Lind Long-Term

After recent articles came out talking about the organizations commitment to winning and spending money to do so, the Jays made a step in backing up their claims by signing a core member of the team to a big contract.

Winning baseball teams require support from the top and Alex Anthopoulos got the approval to sign LF/DH Adam Lind to a contract (4 years/ $18 million, plus options from 2014-2016) that works out like this:

This contract, along with the similar deal for 2B Aaron Hill, will go a long way in ensuring the club continues to retain its top talent. With the recent acquisition of Cuban Shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria (which hasn't yet been named official) and a ton of strong pitching the team looks to have the makings of a solid core to build their team around.

Lind, who is just 26, could potentially earn $38.5 million over seven years at which point he would still have the opportunity to get another decent contract. The great thing about this deal, and the Hill pact for that matter, is that the Jays have complete control after the initial part of the contract.

While looking for some popular opinions of the deal amongst the baseball community it was easy to see that the Jays have, seemingly, done well. Keith Law and Rob Neyer in particular have expressed their approval  of the deal which looks even better when you look at some of the contracts that have been given out in free agency.

For example as MLB Trade Rumors says in their post, "The 26-year-old Lind broke out in a big way last season, hitting .305/.370/.562 with 46 doubles and 35 homeruns. Even though he's mostly a leftfielder and designated hitter, Toronto appears to get a tremendous bargain here. For comparison's sake, Nick Markakis will earn $62.455MM for the same seven year chunk of his career."

Another good comparison in terms of outfield ability and recent contract (but not age) is Canadian Jason Bay who hit .267/.384/.537 with 29 doubles and 36 homers in 2009. The Mets gave Bay a 4 year/$66 million deal with an incentive based option at the tail end.

It was nice to hear that a few of his teammates were there to be with him at his press conference where he said, “It will mean a lot for my parents, for my future kids, just so they can do what they want, they can go to the schools that they want.” And, “They can breathe for the rest of their life.”

I would hope so.

Lind went on to thank his parents, "for making me," and on befalf of all Jays fans we would like to thank them as well.

Spring Training Stats

With the Jays first Grapefruit League game of 2010 coming up tomorrow I thought I would have a look at last years stats from the spring. We always hear that the stats do not matter and they should be taken with a large grain of salt and that is the case more often than not. Dave Cameron, of Fangraphs, recently wrote an article all about last years top performers and their success, or lack thereof, in the regular season. As fans, we can watch boxscores, but must try our hardest to remember the relative importance of the games being played.

As you can see below, the Jays most valuable player could have been Jason Lane who went on to spend the entire season in AAA Las Vegas where he struggled to the tune of a .253/.347/.462 line with 13 homers and 47 RBI's.

David Purcey had a great spring and was seen as the Jays number two starter when the club broke camp, but his season quickly went down hill. With every Purcey, though, there is a Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Aaron Hill, or Adam Lind who carries it over to the season.

I, like many fans, will probably have trouble tempering by excitement if a couple young pitchers like Kyle Drabek or Zach Stewart or hitters like Travis Snider or Brett Wallace have great springs, but we all know that it really may not mean a whole lot.

Key Position Players

With the expected season the Jays are about to go through it is easy to say that a good portion of the lineup would need to have career years for the club to compete. In years past, when the club thought it was in position to contend for a playoff spot, the Jays suffered from certain players either not performing to their expectations or not being able to play at their career norms due to injuries.

Last year, for example, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill played at levels that no one could have foreseen. On the other hand, players like Alex Rios and Vernon Wells were not able to continue their play of years past.

This year the Jays and their fans will look for breakout seasons from players like Brandon Morrow and Travis Snider while searching for continued dominance from Hill and Lind. With the relative inexperience that is on the roster, the chances of breakout seasons from some of the younger guys are unlikely to happen.

At this point in the re-building of the organization, general manager Alex Anthopoulos is looking to see who can handle the majors and who needs more development time.

As I mentioned, though, since it is unlikely for every player to have career years which would push the Jays into contention, there will be key players which could really progress the building of a competitor in the tough AL East. 

Adam Lind

At 26-years-old, Lind will look to build on his sensational 2009 season where he found himself as a LF/DH for 151 games. After posting a .305/.370/.562 with 35 homers and 114 RBI, Lind will be put in a similar position in the lineup where he is going to be expected to be amongst the top sluggers in the American League. With the track record of being a top-notch hitter at every level of baseball, there is no reason to expect he cannot continue what he started last season.

Aaron Hill

While missing nearly two-thirds of 2008 with a severe concussion, Hill rebounded with a sublime 2009 season where he hit .286/.330/.499 (36 HR and 108 RBI) and won the Silver Slugger award for his position. It has been said that he may not be able to smash home runs at the same pace, but if he is able to get on-base a bit betterwhile still seeking his pitch to hit he will continue to be amongst the best young second basemen in the majors. For an interesting read on Hill's spray chart for homers last year, check out this article from Fangraphs. 

Vernon Wells

Wells will hope to bounce back after a 2009 season where he hit .260/.311/.400 with 15 homers and 66 RBI. After the season he had surgery on his wrist which will hopefully give him some of his power back. Cito has mentioned he wants to place Wells in the cleanup spot behind Hill and Lind so he will be given every opportunity to show he can be the hitter he was in 2003 or 2006. I am sure the Jays would settle for something around his career averages of .280/.329/.470. If Wells were able to find his previous form he, at the age of just 31, could give some justification to his massive pricetag.

Travis Snider

At just 22-years-old, Snider will look to fulfill on the promise which everyone has heralded him with since being drafted. It looked like last year was going to be that season, but after slugging .484 in April (and smashing two mammoth homers while in Minnesota) last year it was all downhill. Snider has admitted to going through some rough times last season (recounted here) and is looking forward to having a strong spring. He has not been guaranteed an outfield spot on the major-league club, but it would benefit the club for him to make a statement at the highest level. Snider is the type of player who contending teams place in the middle of their orders and expect top-10 MVP type seasons. His vast potential has allowed him to cruise through the minors and it should allow him to flourish in time.

These are some position players that I feel could help the club grow into the contender they hope to become. Obviously every player would benefit the club with a good season, but they are obviously the core of the current major league club (in terms of position players). If players like Edwin Encarnacion and Lyle Overbay could have solid seasona they may be in line for an extension or a quality trade, respectively. The club will look to boost the minor league system to fill positions of need while promoting those who are currently in the system. Some of the key position players who may see playing time in the majors as soon as 2010 are: Brett Wallace (1B/3B) and J.P. Arencibia (C).

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Lind Leads Jays Fantasy Players

ESPN has come out with their 2010 player projections and there are a few Jays who I am interested in for the upcoming season. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I, when drafting, will more than likely avoid any of the three potential closers (Downs, Gregg, and Frasor) and it looks like they are saying they are feeling the same way. There are a few intriguing players who could help someone's roster either from the draft or later on in the season. Roy Halladay has long been the Jays top fantasy player amongst Jays, but his loss leaves others to step up.

As expected Adam Lind and Aaron Hill lead the bunch of Blue Jays (click to expand):

Now I will give you some players who I feel could be significant fantasy contributors for Toronto (no particular order):

Obviously these are just estimates of the stats these players will put up, but they are always fun to look at. Some players will fail to meet expectations, while others will rise above any prognostications. I am sure no one expected Adam Lind or Aaron Hill to do what they did last year.  

Closing Conundrum

While reading MLB Trade Rumours I found a link to Roto Authority that talks about the 2010 Blue Jays closing situation. I, like many others, play fantasy baseball and while I am drafting relief pitchers in search of saves I will certainly try by best to avoid any of the Blue Jays closing options. There is not likely to be one featured closer like we have seen is some previous seasons (Accardo and Ryan) and the Jays are not projected to have a lot of save situations. There will likely not be a lot of late-inning lead situations and comebacks are not likely with the Jays offence.

The Jays, in general, do not project to have many fantasy studs with the exception of Adam Lind and Aaron Hill. Also, most fantasy "experts" are not expecting Hill to put up similar numbers in 2010. I have read that Edwin Encarnacion is a sleeper for the upcoming season mainly because of the lack of third base depth around the majors and his power and run-producing potential.

To get back to the closing situation though, the Jays have three pitchers who could close adequately, but not to the levels of a Joe Nathan or Jon Papelbon. Those pitchers are Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and newly signed Kevin Gregg. Gregg has the most experience and probably has the upper-hand because of Cito Gaston's tendency to go with the proven commodity.

As mentioned in the article, both Downs and Frasor are entering their walk years and may be moved at the deadline or let walk at the end of the year for draft pick compensation. This may push them to have better seasons as we have seen so often. Downs and Frasor both had better peripheral pitching statistics compared to Gregg and they accomplished those numbers in the much tougher AL East.

Gregg has been heard saying that he is finally healthy from bumps and bruises that have hampered him in the past and looks forward to competing in Spring Training for the job. I feel as though the job will be his, rightly or wrongly, regardless of his spring numbers.

So I could see Gregg being a fantasy pick-up either somewhere in the late rounds or off the waiver-wire for those who are in need of saves and strikeouts. According to Marcel, which predicts stats for MLB players, Gregg is expected to post numbers like this: