Interesting Spring Training Questions

There are a number of questions which remain unanswered at the Jays spring camp:

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  Will Jason Frasor (or maybe Scott Downs?) be moved to another club?

Tough to even hazard a guess, but if the right offer comes along (maybe the Twins or Cubs) then a move will be made. With his new hybrid changeup, it may be smart to allow Frasor to close ball game and have a career year to further boost his value. Scott Downs, if he is available, could be harder to move because he has been rather injury-prone, but he is currently not at his peak value.

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  Who is going to close ball games?

It seems like Kevin Gregg still holds the upper hand despite his struggles in his short time in spring training. It would be nice to see Jason Frasor be given the opportunity because he was awesome last year and seems to have turned the corner as a relief pitcher.

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  Who is the fifth starter to begin the year?

I believe it will be Brian Tallet because Cito has hinted as much and knows what he is getting from him when he sends him out there. Gaston seems to love players who played for the team before (much like Shawn Camp) and he will likely be given the spot to start the year while the team awaits the arrival of another guy to take a spot in the rotation. Brett Cecil seems to be out of favour with the organization recently and the team does not want to rush prospects or injured players. It would be nice to see someone like Dana Eveland who is younger and has more potential to help the team long-term.  

• Who is your top bench player (Mike McCoy, Jeremy Reed, or Joey Gathwright)?

I would think the Jays will use Mike McCoy as an extreme utility player and pinch runner. His ability to play both the infield and outfield while supplying decent on-base skills and plus speed he is a better option than the other players. Reed and Gathwright have proven what they are as major-league players: mediocre.

• Is Travis Snider going to make the team to begin the season?

No, he won't. It sucks to say it because he is definitely fun to watch, but he will probably spend a chunk of time in the Pacific Coast League to begin the year. He does struggle against major-league lefties and is too young to platoon in the MLB. It is unknown how much the minors can help him at this point because he raked there last year, but his teammate Adam Lind went through a lot of the same struggles before and he has fluorished with an advanced hitting aproach. Randy Ruiz deserves a chance to prove himself as a major league hitter and Jose Bautista is in the managers good books. Bautista will more than likely lead-off and start in right field.

EDIT: I think Cito has seen the light (or possibly been told my someone above him) that Snider is the future and will start him in the outfield come opening day. His recent comments on his recent play and importance to the teams future success bode well for Snider and his chances of making the team. This would leave out Reed and Gathwright.

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  Who will make up the rest of the bullpen?

Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Camp, and Zech Zinicola are the group that I think they will start out with. This is obviously just a guess, but I think Casey Janssen and Josh Roenicke will be close. The club will want to watch Zinicola much like they did with Randy Wells years back. I believe Merkin Valdez needs to make the Jays out of sprimg to remain with the club so it really is a loaded bullpen picture.

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  Can Edwin Encarnacion fully recover from his wrist problems to take on a full load at third?

All signs are pointing towards EE getting into spring games soon which would put him on line to start at third on opening day. Everyone always says that hitters could be ready for the season with a two week spring training so maybe the club is being extra cautious. Better safe than sorry and the less wear and tear on that recovering wrist the better. He is a guy who has good power and on-base skills which could really help out a club. I am really high on him and I don't understand why he got so much hate after he struggled to start out with Toronto last season. His defence is not good, but we were spoiled with Scott Rolen and EE really just struggles with an inconsistent throwing arm.

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  Who is the backup catcher to begin the year?

I think it is safe to assume that Jose Molina is going to take that spot in behind John Buck. He is getting a lot of time behind the plate while he attempts to learn all of the new pitchers he will have to catch. If Raul Chavez had any chance he would be catching 'A' games and not the 'B' games he has been working in.

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  Will Brian Dopirak or Randy Ruiz get the backup first baseman/DH spot?

Ruiz is not making it easy for Dopirak to make his major-league debut, but Dopirak is hitting well also. Ruiz is the darling of all the people surrounding the team and it is deserved. This is a guy who has hit at every spot and done whatever the Jays have asked of him. With a new body and the same bat Ruiz is the favourite to make the team.

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  Is Shaun Marcum your opening day starter?

Yes, as pointed out by reporters, he is right on line to start the first game of the year in Texas and is the more experienced than Ricky Romero which is a prerequisite far Gaston. Marcum is only helping his case by blanking the Yankees and Rays in his only spring training starts.

Lind Leads Jays Fantasy Players

ESPN has come out with their 2010 player projections and there are a few Jays who I am interested in for the upcoming season. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I, when drafting, will more than likely avoid any of the three potential closers (Downs, Gregg, and Frasor) and it looks like they are saying they are feeling the same way. There are a few intriguing players who could help someone's roster either from the draft or later on in the season. Roy Halladay has long been the Jays top fantasy player amongst Jays, but his loss leaves others to step up.

As expected Adam Lind and Aaron Hill lead the bunch of Blue Jays (click to expand):

Now I will give you some players who I feel could be significant fantasy contributors for Toronto (no particular order):

Obviously these are just estimates of the stats these players will put up, but they are always fun to look at. Some players will fail to meet expectations, while others will rise above any prognostications. I am sure no one expected Adam Lind or Aaron Hill to do what they did last year.  

Ace in Hand?

When the Blue Jays acquired righty Brandon Morrow in the offseason, I immediately approved of the trade. It was not long after the trade of Halladay and they needed someone to provide effective innings for what looked to be an extremely inexperienced rotation. While he played with the Mariners I was able to catch a few of his starts after Jays games and he certainly impressed me. I watched him almost no-hit the New York Yankees and watched him dismantle the A's last year in his final start of the year. Obviously those starts were/are not the norm, but it did show his vast potential.
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When the M's drafted him 5th overall in the 2006 amateur draft he was thought of as a future ace who could potentially help in the bullpen as soon as that upcoming season. He was an enigma of sorts and the organization admittedly gave him the "yo-yo" treatment by sending him between the rotation and bullpen, both in the majors and minors. They obviously regretted the decision because his potential was never met in the Northwest.

Furthermore, the fans saw the success of local hero Tim Lincecum who was taking the National League by storm just as he had done at the University of Washington. With every Lincecum quality start the Mariners fans would shake their collective heads at the fact that he could have been on their team. I think Jays fans know the feeling after the proposed Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum deal fell through.

Brandon League, along with highly touted outfield prospect Johermyn Chavez, were sent to Seattle in a deal that could work out well for both teams. The Mariners are hoping to contend this year with League moving into their bullpen and the Jays will likely move Morrow into the three-spot in their rotation (they can send him to the minors by using his remaining option, though).
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I, unlike some fans, enjoyed watching League even though he did struggle at times (especially in multi-inning situations), but it is a swap where all players involve may prosper with a change of scenery. Morrow, more so than League, had worn out his welcome and tried the patience of the new front-office of the Mariners and they sent him packing. With the dearth of bullpen arms available to the Blue Jays they could afford to move one piece for a big-armed starting pitcher.

Immediately we heard Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos compare Morrow to former Jay A.J. Burnett. Morrow is a guy who struggles with command, but can reach 98 on the radar gun with relative ease. It is that type of "stuff" that fans love to watch and opposing batters hate to face. On any given night he can strike out twelve or walk six. He can tantalize or frustrate fans or opponents alike and that is what the Jays will attempt to harness.

The Jays, who have a history of turning mediocre pitchers in to serviceable ones, will get the opportunity to turn a talented (albeit wild) pitcher into a future front-end starter.

Something that I will enjoy this season is going to be turning on the television every game and having the possibility to watch something special. Whether it be Morrow, Romero, Marcum, Cecil, or Rzepczynski. In addition to those guys, there are pitchers such as Drabek and McGowan who are just as young, talented, and fun to watch. In a year where there are no expectations, these are the guys I want to see pitch. With all due respect to guys such a Brian Tallet the Jays know what they have in him.

Here are some of Morrow's statistics from years past along with Bill James' projected 2010 statistics:

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Romero Ready for 2010

Really good article by Morgan Campbell in the Toronto Star today that explains how Toronto starting pitcher Ricky Romero is working to put himself on top of the jays rotation for good. Talk around the team indicates that it is a two horse race between him and teammate Shaun Marcum who is coming back from Tommy John surgery. I believe newcomer Brandon Morrow, if he has success in Spring Training, could see himself vault into the conversation.

Last year Romero came shooting out of the gate with a hot start before hitting the disabled list with a freak oblique injury that he suffered while sneezing. His season long stats were 29 GS, 178 IP, 192 H, 18 HR, 141 K, 79 BB, 13 W, 9 L which are not spectacular, but are surprising considering he wasn't projected to even break camp with the team. After defeating another highly-touted pitcher, Rick Porcello, in his MLB debut he posted a solid April month (3 GS, 21 IP, 19 H, 1 HR, 13 K, 4 BB, 2 W, 0 L). In one of those starts, Romero was dazzling at home against the Athletics where Jack Cust compared his pitch repertoire and body build to that of Cy Young winner Johan Santana.

The start was definitely too much to keep up, but the promise that lead the Jays to draft him with the 6th pick in the 2005 amateur draft was becoming evident.

As you can see in the graphic below, Romero's numbers fell off drastically after the All-Star break:


According to the article, Romero does not attribute the drop-off to fatigue, but rather to a sudden loss of the strike zone. It's true that his control suffered as he walked batters at a clip that put him near the worst in the American League with former-Jay A.J. Burnett.

With the loss of Roy Halladay, the Blue Jays need someone to step up and take over the role of ace of the staff and it seems as though Romero is working hard to put himself in that position.